Analysing Australia's path to net zero by 2050

Analysing Australia's path to net zero by 2050

By Liam Taylor  September 18th, 2024

Australia's Climate Change Authority has released a new report charting our pathway to a net zero transition. So what are the key recommendations?

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Achieving Australia’s stated goal of transitioning to net zero emissions by 2050 will be a monumental task. Achieving it will require a collective effort across government, the business community and the public, including contributions from every commercial sector of the economy.

The Climate Change Authority’s latest report—Sectoral Pathways Review—identifies key technology pathways and emissions reduction strategies to guide our net zero transition, placing emphasis on accelerating both mature and emerging technologies.

Read on for a summary of the report's roadmap for how Australia can meet its net zero goals.

Net zero by sector

The review highlights that significant changes within every sector of Australia’s economy will be required in Australia’s emissions reduction effort. Each sector faces different challenges, but collectively they can help Australia decarbonise and achieve its targets.

Here’s how each key sector can play its part:

  1. Electricity: The decarbonisation of electricity is essential, as it is the largest source of emissions in Australia. Wind and solar power, supported by batteries and pumped hydro, are pivotal technologies in this transformation. Fast-tracking the transition away from coal-fired power is critical, with renewables expected to power much of the economy by 2050. This sector will act as the foundation for decarbonising other areas, such as transport and industry.

  2. Transport: Electrifying the transport sector will be key to reducing emissions. Rolling out electric vehicles (EVs) and their supporting infrastructure—such as charging stations—will help decarbonise passenger and light commercial vehicles, which currently account for a significant portion of transport emissions. However, heavy transport and aviation will require a mix of solutions, including biofuels and hydrogen, and the industry needs further clarity on how these technologies will scale.

  3. Industry and waste: Switching to renewable energy and adopting technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) are crucial for reducing emissions in the industrial sector. Australia has the potential to become a global leader in producing low-emissions aluminium and steel but transitioning to renewable energy to power these industrial processes will be essential. Emerging technologies like green hydrogen will help in achieving deeper decarbonisation.

  4. Agriculture and land: Livestock is responsible for over half of agricultural emissions, and reducing these will require changes in farming practices, such as improving the way protein is produced. Significant emissions reductions are unlikely until the late 2030s, highlighting the importance of investment in research and development (R&D). Reforestation and carbon farming also present opportunities for emissions reduction, but available land for reforestation is limited, making it critical to reduce emissions in other areas.

  5. Resources: Australia’s resources sector will see a shift from coal and gas production to increased production of minerals and metals like iron, which are essential for renewable energy infrastructure. The electrification of mining processes and the deployment of CCS technologies are changes with the potential to significantly reduce emissions. This transition is crucial to maintain Australia's position as a global resource provider in a decarbonising world.

  6. Built environment: Improving energy efficiency in buildings through technologies like energy-efficient appliances and rooftop solar is vital. Reducing emissions in this sector will not only lower energy bills for households and businesses but will also contribute to the broader transition. Extending energy efficiency standards to more commercial buildings and introducing mandatory residential building efficiency schemes could accelerate progress.

Accelerating technology deployment

Australia’s transition to net zero will rely heavily on the rapid deployment of both mature and emerging technologies. Mature technologies, such as wind, solar, and battery storage, are already widely available and represent the lowest-cost option for reducing emissions. Accelerating their deployment is considered the "low-hanging fruit" of decarbonisation and could make substantial progress in the 2020s.

Emerging technologies, including hydrogen and carbon capture, are at the demonstration stage. They will be vital for addressing emissions in areas such as heavy industry, transport, and agriculture where current options are limited. The report emphasises that while these technologies need further development and investment, they must be scaled up swiftly to have a meaningful impact by the 2030s and 2040s.

Overcoming barriers to transition

The transition to net zero is not without challenges. Key barriers identified by the Climate Change Authority include:

  • Green premium: The higher cost of low- and zero-emissions technologies compared to traditional high-emissions alternatives is a significant barrier. Policies and incentives are needed to help bridge this cost gap and encourage investment in clean technologies.

  • Slow approval processes: Approval processes for renewable energy projects and related infrastructure, such as transmission lines, are often slow and complex, hindering progress. Streamlining these processes is essential for accelerating the deployment of clean energy projects.

  • Social license: Building community support for large-scale infrastructure projects, such as wind farms and transmission lines, is crucial. Addressing concerns and involving communities in the planning process will be key to gaining social licence for these projects, especially with conflicting political narratives confusing the public.

  • Supply chain constraints: The supply of critical low-emissions technologies, such as electric mining equipment, is currently limited. Scaling up production will be necessary to meet the demand created by the transition.

  • Workforce shortages: The clean energy transition will require a skilled workforce, particularly in regional areas. Addressing current workforce shortages and investing in training and education is essential to support the growing demand for workers in clean energy sectors.

The need for urgency and equity

The report stresses that immediate action is far more efficient than waiting for future technological breakthroughs. Delaying strategies designed to achieve emissions reductions will only result in more accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, exacerbating the impacts of climate change already being felt.

By acting now, Australia can take advantage of the cost reductions already seen in renewable energy technologies, create virtuous cycles of learning and innovation, and minimise the total cost of the transition. The report underscores that while the transition will not be easy, it is achievable if all sectors contribute and collaborate towards the goal of net zero emissions.

The report also highlights the importance of an equitable transition to net zero. As Australia shifts away from fossil fuels, there will be both winners and losers. Ensuring that the burdens and benefits of the transition are shared fairly across regions, sectors, and communities is crucial. Governments at all levels must collaborate with businesses and communities to support workers transitioning from declining industries to new clean energy sectors.

Integrating circular economy principles

While the Climate Change Authority’s report highlights key strategies for reducing emissions across various sectors, the integration of circular economy principles—designing out waste and pollution, keeping products and materials in use, and regenerating natural systems—appears to be in its early stages. Greater emphasis on designing waste out of systems, increasing product longevity, and encouraging reuse and recycling could significantly contribute to reducing Australia's emissions across all sectors.

Research by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation shows that 55 per cent of GHG emissions can be mitigated by switching traditional energy sources to renewable energy. The remaining 45 per cent of GHG emissions can only be addressed by transforming the systems of production that provide our food, cars, clothes and other products, and keep materials in circulation.

Circular economy initiatives will be crucial to achieving net zero, as they promote reduction of resource use generally and the energy required to produce goods, while redesigning those goods to allow them to be kept in circulation at highest value. As Australia moves forward, integrating circular economy thinking more comprehensively into roadmaps like this one could deliver greater emissions reductions, reduce costs, and enhance sustainability.

Conclusion

Australia’s path to net zero by 2050 is clear: accelerate the deployment of available technologies, invest in emerging solutions, and ensure that the transition is equitable and inclusive. By integrating circular economy principles for material circularity, Australia can further enable emissions reductions. Through these strategies, Australia can position itself as a leader in the global clean energy economy, safeguard its environment, and create new opportunities for future generations.

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Liam Taylor

Prior to joining Planet Ark Liam spent his time studying global environmental issues, travelling Southeast Asia on the cheap and working for a sustainable property management company in Bali, Indonesia. Joining the communications team at Planet Ark, he hopes to inspire positive environmental behaviour through effective and positive messaging.

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